Can you find value in “Place” selections?
I started a new Greyhorse bot test on the 19th of December 2023 and this report is based on the results up to the 7th of January 2024.
After 19 days we have results from 73 selections.
In this test, I used three settings from TT+ these are:
This tells the bot which market we are going to bet on, in this case, it is the “Place” market.
This is the total price movement (score) created 3 mins before the off.
This is the number of arrows scored from the TTS+ price sheet between 6 am and 10 am.
After a couple of different tests over the last few months, I settled on a price range from 1.10 to 1.99 (Under 2.00)
This is the price setting I used in the Greyhorse Bot.
Two things should be mentioned before we start looking at the results stats that may skew the results from TTS+.
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Because you do not know what the final BSP (Betfair starting price) will be at the Race “off” we have to place our bets before the race goes off to keep within the price range of 1.10 to 1.99. To do this I set the bot takes the price 10 seconds before the advertised off.
TTS+ Uses BSP so there could (and probably will) be differences between my test results and what TTS+ shows in its results.
In simulated results using TTS+ it actually shows 79 selections which kinda of proves what I have already said.
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The bot uses the standard (Bookie) “Place” Terms (not Betfair’s) to decide which TBP market to place a bet on. These are:
1 – 4 runners No Places – Win Only bet
5 – 7 runners 1st & 2nd place only
8+ runners 1st, 2nd and 3rd place
12 – 15 runners (handicapped races only) 1st, 2nd and 3rd place
16+ runners (handicapped races only) 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place
One thing to note though is that Betfair does not change their “Place” payout because of non-runners. This means that if an 8-runner race turned into a 7-runner race because of a non_runner Betfair would still payout to 3 places.
Just for clarity, Betfair’s “Place” payout are these.
4 to 5 runners 2 places
6 to 7 runners 3 places
8 to 13 runners 4 place
14+ runners 5 places
With that out of the way let us carry on with the results.
All results from the test
The average price of the selections was 1.57.
If we divide 1/1.57 we can see that we are expecting a 64% chance of winning.
From the 73 results, we had 18 losers which means we had 55 winners.
If we divide 55(Winners)/73 (selections) * 100 we get a 73.35% strike rate which is better than the 1.57 average price would suggest. In other words, so far, we have found value in the “Place” market.
The actual average winning price was 1.55 so there isn’t much difference between the two at the moment.
Over this test, we made 11.62 points profit which equates to (11.62/19) 0.61 points average per day and (11.62/73) 0.16 per selection.
Remember these are averages and there will be days when the losers are higher than the winners.
Before we look at other results based on price range it is worth looking at what 0.61 points profit per day could mean.
If you were staking £1 bets this would be the equivalent of 0.61p and if you were placing £10 bets it would be £6.10 a day and if you could afford £100 bets then it is £61.00 per day.
When you think about this it is an amazing return on your money.
Of course, you must remember these are averages and this method has shown losing runs of 3 (and could be more) so you have to be sensible.
If we took the average of 0.61 points per day and compounded 8% of our winnings onto your next stake then you could go from a £1 stake to a £100 stake in 98 days. Of course, you will not win every day so it will probably take longer than this.
The longest losing run we had was 3 but if you are thinking about some kind of recovery staking keep in mind that at low odds it takes larger stakes to recover.
If you were thinking about this idea it may be better to stick to the higher of the two price ranges which we will discuss next.
Different price ranges.
It makes some sense to look at this in two different price ranges. One thing to keep in mind here is that on some days you may not get any selection within the price range.
1.10 to 1.50.
30 results over 12 days (Not all days had selections in the price range).
The average price was 1.31 (The average winning price was the same) which equates to a 76.14% chance of winning.
From the 30 selections we only lost on 4 giving us a strike rate of 87% far higher than expected.
Over the test, we made 4 points profit. The average daily profit was 0.34 points. This is 34p for every £1.00 or £3.40 for every £10 bet. The actual return for each selection was 0.13 points or 13%.
Although this is less than the overall profit if you were to use all of the selections you also get fewer losers.
1.50 to 1.99 Price Range.
43 results over 15 days.
The average price was 1.75 (The average winning price was 1.76) which equates to a 57% chance of winning.
From the 43 selections, we lost 14 giving us a strike rate of 67.44% again higher than expected.
Over the test, we made 7.58 points profit. The average daily profit was 0.51 points. This is 51p for every £1.00 or £5.10 for every £10 bet. It also equates to 0.17 points per selection or 17%. This is slightly better than using all selections which kind of implies during this test this was the best price range.
So even though it is less than the overall profit it is a good return for fewer selections.
The longest losing run was 2 but I would expect this to rise so be careful if you are considering using some kind of recovery because you may run into trouble with 4 or 5 losers in a row.
Next Test.
So today (08/01/2024) I have reset the bot and have now set it up to use a % of the bank.
This means the stake will be a % of whatever the bank is at the time a bet is placed.
I will do my next report when I have another 70 to 100 race results to show.
If you want to try this yourself you will need a copy of TTS+ and a subscription to the Greyhorse bot.
Here is a screenshot from the first day's testing using the new % of the bank settings.
Until Next Time
Malcolm
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This guide /report is for information only. In no way we are advising you to act on the guide /report or to bet on live markets. Please seek proper advice if you are unsure what to do.
Unmatched bets, prices out of range and other factors may influence your results compared to ours so we can in no way guarantee that you will achieve similar results. In fact your results could be worse.
Please see Betfair’s information on how they match bets.
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There is a substantial risk of loss associated with betting. Losses can and will occur. No system or methodology has ever been developed that can guarantee profits or ensure freedom from losses. No representation or implication is being made that using the information on this guide /report/article will generate profits or ensure freedom from losses. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular betting program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical betting does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical betting record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual betting. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular betting program in spite of betting losses are material points which can also adversely affect betting results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific betting program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual betting results.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL BETTING.
ALSO, SINCE THE BETS HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED BETTING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.
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