How to give yourself a 92% chance winning on the Football Markets.
I am writing this as a “Reluctant Football Trader”.
What do I mean?
Well, personally I really don’t like football!
…But I do love trading and betting on football matches.
Now as a trader I am the first to admit that to get the most out of any trade you really need to watch the game or race.
Sorry, I really couldn’t imagine sitting through 90 minutes (+) of a match!
Of course, you may be different giving you a big advantage over me.
The problem is I have started to do a lot of Football Trades, so, I couldn’t watch that many matches and still understand what is happening anyway.
This means of course that I must select markets where I can get away without watching what is happening...
...And use tools to help me get an idea of how the match is developing on the pitch again without watching the match.
Luckily there are plenty of different Football markets on Betfair (or any other exchange) that allow you to trade without watching.
One of my favourites is the Over 0.5 Goals market.
One statistic you may have heard is that 92% of all football matches end it at least one goal or more.
(Another interesting statistic is that 68% of matches have at least one goal scored in the first half)
So, if you back the over 0.5 goal market “Blindly” then you have a 92% chance of winning.
This statistic is great, but you will probably find that there are variations in different leagues and some may be a little higher and others a little lower.
Still, whichever way you look at it…It’s high!
The downside of this is that the markets know it and the prices available are often as low as 1.03.
Also, it is said the Football markets are very good at getting the prices correct and so difficult to beat.
Normally this would be a problem for a normal bet where you lose all your stake if you lose…
…But you have one advantage on the Football Markets and that is you can trade out at any time without losing your whole stake.
So, on the odd occasion you don’t win within say 70 to 80 minutes of a match you can still “cash out” and not lose even half of our stake.
You have another great advantage as well…
…You can pick and choose your matches.
You don’t have to get involved until later in the match when you can see how the two sides are playing.
Then there is loads of information you can find that can give you an idea of whether you can expect a goal or not.
You can never be totally sure but you only have to tip the odds slightly in your favour and you can start making a profit.
So how do you put this all together so that you have a good chance of making a profit from the Over 0.5 Goals market?
To get to the football matches on Betfair you go…
Clicking on any football match will show you the markets that are available.
Now here is where you can find another useful tool and it is called the “Live Stream” and it can give you a lot of information about the two teams that are playing.
Key Stats: What’s happening in the Football Match Now
Head to Head: What’s happened when the two teams have met before
Form: Information about the teams last few matches home and away.
This information can help you build up a picture of the likely outcome of the match.
An example is that if every single other match they played against each other resulted in at least one goal…
…Then surely there is a good chance that this could happen in this match will as well?
You can get more sophisticated than that and look at goals scored by both teams recent and what’s happening on the pitch right now.
You can even use my own software that comes free with the 92% Football Trading Method.
You can even wait for a certain price or time to get into the market and get out.
There are plenty of options when it comes to the Over 0.5 Goal market and remember that the statistics are on your side.
I said earlier that the profit is not very high on these markets but with a bit of study, you can win constantly with very few losers…
…And when the game looks like it not going your way then get out earlier with at least some of your stake.
I really do think this is one of the key parts of this method that although some matches may end up with a last minute goal…
…And as already mentioned It’s probably not worth waiting around for them because after the 70 to 80-minute mark has come you can still "Cash Out" with quite a lot of your stake available.
So if you want to build a strategy around a market that gives you a great chance of winning on then you should check out the Over 0.5 Goal market.
Until Next Time
"The Reluctant Football Trader" :-)