Half or Bust (HOB).
If you have ever tried to do a double or bust (Dob) then you will probably also know that it is quite a difficult trade.
If your unfamiliar with this type of trade, then a quick explanation may help.
The normal Dob is to back a runner and then trade out when (or if) the price drops to half the price you backed it at.
So lets say you backed a horse for 4.00 you would need the price to drop to 2.00 in order to make a Dob trade because this will win you back the equivalent of your stake.
Here is a Dob trade in action:
As I started off saying this is quite a difficult trade to pull off and although the Dob software is more than capable of helping you find these types of bets...
...You may want to start off with something a little easier.
Instead of trying for a full Dob you may have more success with a half Dob (Hob) or winning 50% of your original stake.
This is still a win or bust bet but it should be easier to achieve.
You will also have a much better chance of succeeding with this bet before the off and in-play.
Here is an example of a trade like this
So this is how it works.
Generally, we place a back bet first and we can place this sometime before the off or we can put in an SP bet on Betfair (BSP) which will then be matched as the market goes in-play.
One thing you should remember is that most Dob or tick statistics are based on BSP and often the BSP can be higher than the price a few seconds before the off.
Once you place your bet wait for the yellow “Cash Out” button to come live then immediately use the “Auto Trade” and ask for half of your original stake profit.
So, if you placed a bet back bet for £2.00 you add £1 to the Auto Trade button.
How to find a runner to trade on.
Generally, we are told to look for runners that have a good history of front running which actually means a lot of manual work.
To be accurate you will have to watch at least 3 of the horses last 3 races to see how they performed.
This not only gives you information about the runners Dob history but other stats that can help you find potential trades as well.
If a horse has a high dob success rate, then it is likely that it puts up a good performance in-play which kind of tells you it likely to get into the mix of things.
Here is a 5 step process that can help you find selections.
1. look for runners that have a “Dobbs (Avg) +50” of 60% or better.
2. Check that it's based on more than 3 races.
3. Check the average tick value is high (50 + is good)
4. Check the “% Score” is 50% +
5. Check the “DOB PL” is a positive figure.
Open up the horse history and check that the Dob successes are from recent races.
Using the Dob software makes it easy to find selections like these within a race that should have a good chance of HOB.
A couple of words of warning about in-play bets.
1. Stick to 1 mile plus races just because you have more time to react.
2. This is just one of those bets you have to see out to the end because often a runner can look like losing but then makes a run for it.
3. People call a HOB (And DOB) a trade because you are not looking for a win. But you are still committing your whole stake unless you put in a negative trade out strategy as well…
…But then it isn’t Half or bust!
Until Next Time
The "Cash Out" Guy